World Situation Report
The following is a summary of recent political and military activity in certain countries of the world where the Russian Union has, or hopes to have, significant influence. This report is compiled by country, alphabetically. This study is intended to provide background and context of our current political situation so that our military planners can take this into account in their planning or when making recommendations about matters of state to the General Staff.
For a briefing on any country not listed in this report, please issue a request to our bureau through the usual channels.
Angola
While we regard General Yuhu as a petty tyrant who can easily be bought, we envision him and the country he rules as one of our most valued allies, one that President Voronov has hand-selected as Russia's "outpost of the future." Where the Russian Fleet will be able to call at any time and where our brand of socialist government can quickly spread to the working classes of emerging nations. Already we are working out an arrangement to lease a naval base in the coastal town of Porto Alexandra, and in the future we hope to build a large air base nearby capable of launching our Backfires and other long range strategic aircraft. This of course would give us tremendous leverage in any conflict with the US in the future, since the South Atlantic provides a rich hunting ground for American-bound oil tankers and would give us a strategic advantage in the region over the US 2nd Fleet, which has no bases in this part of the world.
It was agreed that this arrangement cannot go ahead, however, until the rebellion in Angola is crushed -- a goal we are therefore working toward earnestly. We know that UNITA is being supplied and supported by South Africa, though South Africa has stated it has no involvement. UNITA's resistance movement consists of only truck-deployed guerrillas and light firearms, the deadliest weapons being RPGs and 50-caliber machine guns. The government's army, however, which is supported by both our own and Cuban military advisors, is among the largest in southern Africa. Its equipment is almost entirely Russian-built, including T-55 tanks, BRDMs and BTR80s, along with a few BMP2s. They have an air force of over 30 aircraft including MiG-21s and MiG-23s, as well as a few Fitter Su-22s. Angola's navy is the least powerful of the three branches, featuring mainly smallish torpedo boats and patrol boats for guarding the inland waterways and shoreline to inhibit smuggling.
Recently, our "advisors" stepped up their level of participation, and in fact are not just advising but are actively participating in the directing of artillery and commanding of troops in the field. This is far more involvement than we would prefer the world press to know about, but our hope is that if we can help crush the rebellion soon before the press gets involved we can accelerate our strategic goals. If we cannot vanquish the rebels quickly, our hope is that if nothing else the conflict in Angola may draw allied resources away from central Europe, which of course would be a blessing all by itself. However, it should be known that the Kremlin is concerned about losing this important foothold on the African continent should a combined US-UK-South African coalition succeed in helping the UNITA rebels overthrow the present regime. Thus, a good deal ofour own forces may need to be tied up in securing this area as well.
Argentina
The recent overthrow of Argentina came as a surprise to most of the world and even to most Argentinians. What would be even more surprising for most people, however, is that our very own GRU operatives helped engineer it. Certainly, Castro is to be credited with stirring up a Leftist movement, but it would not have been enough to sweep the elections without our influence.
The way we accomplished this feat was through a covert op known as Operation Chad (inspired by the fallout from the US Presidential election in south Florida in 2000) involving voting machines that had been manufactured by a third party country and sold to Argentina as cheap surplus (an offer no government could refuse). En route, these seemingly simple looking machines were implanted with a chip that could change the voting tally mechanism on command, by a remote radio signal.
Our hope in the end was to gain the use of a port for our fleet, giving us a supply point on the other side of the Atlantic and closing the noose around any US-bound shipping in the South Atlantic. Unfortunately, the new President, Del Fuego, was not aware of our instrumental role and and has credited the overthrow almost entirely to Castro. About all we can expect in terms of gratitude at this point is the use of Argentina's ports should a war break out with the US, but we would not be able to biuld up the facility as a base of operations. Still, the overthrow marks one of our greatest political achievements, and while not quite a military ally, Argentina is now a full-fledged communist country with whom we share the best relations. We have plans in the works for similar uses of "Operation Chad" in the future.
Bulgaria
Bulgaria is the only Warsaw Pact country that continues to maintain an old-school, hardline communist posture. In fact, the tensions between this communist republic and the NATO members of Europe -- particularly Turkey and Greece -- are worse now than they were at any time during the Cold War. The tension is mainly over an old historic Bulgarian claim to the Greek province of Macedonia. Yugoslavia, who also controls part of this province, seems to have cut a deal with Bulgaria that they would assist them in seizing Greek Macedonia as long as Bulgaria agreed not to go after the Yugoslavian sector. Bulgaria's newfound aggression has been inspired by its leader, Todor Zhezhevsky, a militant "dictator of the proloteriat" who appears to idolize Stalin more than our own statesmen did even back in the 1950s.
Bulgaria has evolved into what is essentially one large military production complex funded by Moscow, and provides more than half of our more common armored tanks and vehicles using cheap steel supplied by Yugoslavia by a separate agreement. (It appears Yugoslavia cut this deal to appease Bulgaria and disuade its forces from attempting to invade the portion of Macedonia that extends into its own borders). With our support and expertise, we have helped Bulgaria become a major producer of Russian-designed arms, from AK-47s to T72 tanks, which has done much to support their economy. In return we are gaining a strong ally capable of blocking NATO's influence in southeastern Europe, and drawing resources away from the central European theater. This alliance could be particularly valuable to us if Bulgaria does indeed capture Greek Macedonia, as this could give our Black Sea fleet a strategic port in the Mediterranean without having to transit through the Bosperus or the Sea of Marmosa.
Instead of paying full price for these weapons, we allow Bulgaria to take every tenth tank, vehicle and shell off the production line and keep them for their own arsenal, while claiming they were "duds " in their production records. This allows them to build their military to levels far beyond what they would normally be able to afford, while at the same time keeps the number of weapons "off the books" and away from the prying eyes of Western intelligence. Should war break out in Europe, Bulgaria would make a strong ally on our southern flank, far stronger than NATO will be prepared for.
China
Relations with Communist China have always been tense, but now, with their audacious takeover of several disputed islands in the Spratly Island group, the Chinese seem to be taking a more aggressive posture in Asia than usual. As you may recall from the US-Malaysian conflict in 2008, the suspected oil fields around these islands have been jointly contested by China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines. By a prior agreement were supposed to be left vacant until the UN ruled on ownership, but China didn't wait for a verdict. Not liking how the US-Malaysia war ended, they simply sent in a number of destroyers along with a few small troop transports and planted their flag on several of the islands. End of discussion.
This aggressive behavior is particularly alarming when we consider that there has also been a buildup of Chinese forces along the Russian border, which we no longer have the manpower to defend. The irony is that the Chinese forces in this area are largely equipped with our own weapons, the weapons we sold them during our great Sell-off in 2005. While this equipment is predominantly older kit, mostly T-74 and T-62 tanks, BTR80s and MT-LB APCs, supported by MiG 21s and 23s, they have made up in numbers what they lack in quality. In fact, the Chinese now have some 73 fully-equipped divisions, over 7 of which are positioned along the northern frontier. If they were ever to attack our border in force, they could probably overrun and secure millions of square miles of territory before our eastern army group could respond.
Fortunately, the lion's share of the weapons we sold to China have not been pointed at us, but at Taiwan, and to some extent, Vietnam. It is believed, however, that China is limited in its ability to attack Taiwan due to its lack of sea lift and air lift assets, and will need to bolster its navy quite a bit before this type of operation becomes a viable threat to Taiwan. Vietnam, on the other hand, is a different story. While there have been no hostile actions taken between these two former allies as of yet, it is not hard to imagine a scenario whereby China moves into Vietnma en masse and annexes its prosperous factories and and shipping -- without a single act of reprisal.
China seems to have secretly formed some sort of alliance with Indonesia, as indicated by the Spratly incident, in much the same way they attempted to form a secret pact with Malaysia two years ago during the crisis in Brunei. Indonesia has received much in the way of arms from China -- with no signs of monetary compensation. What China expects to get from its support of Indonesia is unclear at this time.
All other countries in the Pacific rim, however, are greatly disturbed by the recent buildup of the People's Liberation Army. It is important to note that to neutralize the balance of power in the Western Pacific following the "Spratly Incident" as well as the arms buy, the US signed an immediate-assistance pact with Taiwan. This treaty effectively binds the US to respond with all available force and with all possible haste the moment Taiwan is considered to be under attack from China.
Cuba
With the death of Fidel Castro, the US thought they would at last be able to bring Cuba back in line as a site for tourism, not Communism. Wrong. Soon after his death, Castro's grandson, "Fidelito" Castro, succeeded him, and was no more tolerant or benevolent to capitalist opportunists than his grandfather was. It appears now that Cuba, with the help of Russia, is attempting to export communism to other countries in the southern hemisphere, most notably Honduras, Angola and Argentina, which could have a tremendously destabilizing effect in each of their respective regions.
The US is working hard, both overtly and covertly, to counter leftist activity in each of these Cuban-influenced areas, but if these areas of conflict esacalate it could someday lead to a direct confrontation with Cuba itself. This would obligate us to stand up for our Caribbean ally and demand the US to keep their hands off Cuba -- or else. But this of course would be last-resort situation. Besides, we believe Cuba could stand up for itself rather well, withour support, and war would eventually lead to US troops invading their home island, something that, as expert guerrilla fighters, Castro and his army might even welcome.
Honduras
After years of near-bankruptcy, a militant rebel movement is on the rise in this country in a replay of the Cuban revolution of the 1950s -- and with good reason. The Honduran contras are being deftly guided and supported by Fidelito Castro, the grandson of Fidel and present dictator of Cuba. The US has agreed to help the government of Honduras fight the rebel faction by seizing contraband weapons being smuggled to them by Cuba. (Those weapons, of course, all happen to be Russian-made.) If we can somehow continue to supply the Honduran contras with weapons through Cuba as our intermediary -- without exposing our involvement too clearly -- we may help orchestrate a leftist coup resulting in our gaining an important new ally in the Western Hemisphere. Even if this does not occur right away, keeping the Contras supplied and in the fight may distract a significant portion of the US Southern Command, allowing our submarines an even better chance for transiting the GIUK gap and into the North Atlantic.
We must be careful not to assist the contras directly at this time, however, as this would portray us as a destabilizing and manipulative nation. This would undermine our valuable connections with our Latin American friends, who are extremely sensitive to the notion of meddling by an outside superpower.
India
We have confirmed evidence that Pakistan is funding a extremist religious group in Sri Lanka (the Tamil), which has been linked to a number of assasination attempts against Indian officials.
While the US is not directly involved in Indian or Pakistani affairs per se, any major outbreak of hostilities could cause great harm to commercial interests as well as destabilize the entire region. It is likely that some sort of UN initiative would be invoked in which the US would probably play a major role to prevent the conflict from escalating to the nuclear level. This would no doubt bring a large US presence to the Indian Ocean region, which would hopefully reduce the number of US forces available for reinforcing Europe and the North Atlantic.
Iran
Ayatollah Khanolli, like Saddam Hussein, has been one of our most valued customers, with a seemingly endless appetite for our military products. Last year, billions were spent on our "pre-owned" T80U tanks, giving them perhaps the thrid most powerful armored force in the world after the US and ourselves. We do not believe this purchase of this size could have been made for purely "defense" purposes. We expect, in fact, that Iran will be undertaking one of two actions -- either joining Syria in the destruction of Israel very soon, or waiting until Syria has depleted Israel some more, then attacking along with combined forces from Iraq and Libya. The former would guarantee success (barring US intervention) but the victory would have to be shared with Syria. The latter would present the Ayatollah has the "savior" who destroyed Israel when Syria failed, making him a thousand-year hero and the undisputed hero of the Arab world.
Iraq
Even more than Iran, Iraq has been designated by both Presidents Putin and Voronov as "our sworn ally," and for that reason is "untouchable" as long as our "partnership" continues. Of course, Saddam Hussein is something of a loose cannon and we cannot always be sure that he will be using our weapons responsibly. He has also been far too deeply involved in making nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction than we would like. Should there be irrefutable proof of such development going on we would have to join the rest of the UN Security Council in voting for its removal, though we may be able to prevent any decapitation strikes or any other action aimed at Saddam Hussein himself.
Barring that, we look forward to the continued prosperity of our relationship with Iraq, and will be prepared to defend our alliance with Iraq to the death.
Libya
A new regime, headed by Col. Khaki Khadama, has taken over Libya and seems to be carrying the torch for Qadhafi's dream of a unified Arabian empire. Libya's large arsenal of weaponry, in addition to its political rhetoric which calls for nothing less than the total destruction of Israel, has been a severely divisive influence in the Medeterranean/Middle East region, to say the least. Because its borders are not adjacent to Israel, however, and because its Arab brother-states have become more moderate in its stance with Israel over the last few years, Khadama's speeches for a Pan-Arabian uprising against the Israelis have tended to fall on deaf ears. Still, Iraq is listening, and spewing the same rhetoric. All it would take is one country, say, Jordan or Egypt, to join with Libya in a "holy crusade" and suddenly Libya would have a corridor with which to attack Israel using its entire air and ground forces -- and probably would without UN intervention of some kind.
Frustrated by the lack of unity of Arab states, however, Khadama has unleashed perhaps the largest wave of terrorism in the last 20 years, aimed at Israel and her allies, in particular the U.S. We have learned that the CIA, in fact, has linked a number of heinous acts that were planned and equipped by Libya, such as the blowing up of the Sears tower in Chicago in 2002, which galvanized the American public's anti-Arab sentiments (though New Yorkers reportedly cheered, hoping for another such terrorist act upon Kuala Lumpur's Petronas Towers, which, to their disappontment, withstood the US-Malaysia war of 2008 <g>). Unfortunately, the bombers were killed in the explosion and never got to make their demands known, so it took 8 years of research to definitively connect the incident with Libyan terrorism. By then, the American public had simmered down over the affair.
GRU operatives inform us that there is further evidence that connects Libya with scores of other terrorist acts in the US, including several downed jet liners and the blowing up of Taco Bell headquarters in Los Angeles. Our analysts estimate that any further links between Libyan terrorism and the US will be considered by the American public as an act of war, punishable by a punitive strike. Looking for a growing presence of the US 6th fleet (Mediterranean region) and other Allied forces in the near future.
Malaysia
Once a shining star on the world stage during the Battle of Brunei, Malaysia is now a non-entity. After losing the war, its military has been de-fanged, and the country will do well to protect itself from its ever-encroaching neighbor, Indonesia. Unfortunately, this means Malaysia can probably offer little in the way of a distraction to the US at this time.
North Korea
Pakistan
As mentioned in the India brief, Pakistan has been involved in what amounts to an undeclared war for over a decade, and continues to build up its armed forces. The main concern with Pakistan, at least as far as the UN is concerned, is that it seems more intent on using terror weapons such as ballistic missiles than on conventional ones -- and seems to have no compunction about using them with nuclear warheads. This, of course, has the effect of prompting India to do the same. At some point, the UN may step in and impose a forced destruction of nuclear arms, which would have to be heavily supervised by the US, the UK and possibly Frnace.
GRU operatives have now confirmed a strong link between Pakistan and the Tamil leadership on Sri Lanka, with Pakistan providing the funds and the Tamil providing the terrorism -- usually in the form of a either a bombing or the assassination of a low or mid-level public official which, due to lack of security at this level are executed relatively easily with no one being caught. The idea behind the latter tactic is to frighten off would-be leaders from stepping forward, which, over time, is beginning to leave India crippled in the administration of its public functions.
Poland
The winds of fortune are changing, and soon, the Russian Union will be be able to control Polish territory once again and put an end to any more meddling by the US and NATO.
As you no doubt know by now, our glorious 5th Shock Army in combination with the10th Tank Army in the south, are now poised along the Polish border as a result of their pursuit of the last Ukrainian nationalists forces from their homeland. While NATO countries squawked and yelled for other countries to come support Poland, no one took action, and Poland is now there for the taking. We refrained from doing so only because studies showed we would be forced to withdraw in the face of US reinforcements arriving by way of the Atlantic. Once our sub fleet has transited to the Atlantic and the US SLOC has been cut, we can make our move on Poland.
In the meantime, we are watching for any signs of a military build-up in Poland. So far, Poland's defense is mostly from Poland itself, with three mech divisions activated in the Warsaw district, and a mix of about six different brigades (light, heavy, paratrooper, air assault) in the Krakow sector. None of them will be able to withstand an attack even from our first ecehelon of troops.
Currently, the Bundeswehr 7th Panzer Division is just now arriving in the Warsaw district -- the most key district strategically. This was to be expected, as the 7th Panzer is a known rapid-reaction element of NATO and would have been ready to deploy at even the first hint of trouble and probably began preparations for this deplyment preparations some weeks ago. This is still nowhere near enough of a defense to thwart our entire army, however. Also, the General Staff believes that by allowing NATO to deploy perhaps one or two divisions to Poland while our troops do nothing (except perhaps relax, or play volleyball within sight of their forces) will work as part of a greater deception, showing we mean what we say about having no intentions to invade Poland.
We will continue to watch for any further build-up of NATO forces in Poland, but will continue to hope that our diplomatic corps can appease their fears while our Northern Fleet prepares. If we spot three or more new NATO divisions arriving into Poland, however, we will begin to lose our numerical edge and must order the Northern Fleet to embark -- whatever state of readiness they are in.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia represents one of our worst failures in foreign policy. Once anti-Western and a big customer of Russian weapons, our influence over this country was lost during our "troubled years" when we were unable to provide assistance against the threat of Saddam Hussein. The US offered assistance, however, and in exchange now has several air bases from which to project power and ensure the flow of oil. These bases could be used against us in the south as a staging area and logistics support for NATO forces in the field. It is hoped that a pan-Arabian crusade against Israel will force the Saudis to take sides with its Arab brethren and against the US -- in which case, no more US air bases.
Somalia
The Somalian warlords are nothing more than outlaws with high tech weapons, but they are eternally grateful and helpful since their victorious coup d' etat. And they should be -- after all, we funded it! (Secretly, of course.) Providing heavy military weapons and advice to such an unstable regime might be thought of as imprudent by some countries, but we can use our influence to secure a port or a major air base they can provide us a facility of great strategic importance -- especially if we are destined to fight a war against the United States.
Our main goal is to acquire a port somewhere near the Gulf of Oman for our Black Sea Fleet, which, if acquired will immediately shut down the flow of oil to the US. This alone could bring the US to the peace table -- on its knees! Furthermore, if linked with other ports in Angola and in Latin America, we would have circumnavigational capability, allowing us once again to challenge US sea superiority and to take command of our own political fate. Thus, Somalia is of the highest strategic importance to the Russian Union.
Sri Lanka
While the Sri Lanka government tries to maintain a facade of peace and harmony, this island republic has become synonymous with international terrorist groups, the most notable one being the Timil -- a fanatic religious sect funded by Pakistan which is committed to eliminating the current Hindu leaders in India. The Timil people are a separate enclave within Sri Lanka, having won their autonomy after years of civil war with the Sri Lanka government. Their homeland -- a thick, jungle region known as the Wanni -- is used as a training camp for staging attacks on political and military targets inside India proper. Their most infamous deeds involve "suicide bombers," who are generally women (because they tend not to be searched as vigorously at airports) who have been known to strap explosives to themselves and wait for an opportunity to approach high level leaders in public areas. More recently, however, their attacks have been aimed at lower level Indian leaders such as provincial governors as a form of long-term terrorism: by putting the fear of death into anyone who seeks public office, thus creating a vaccuum of leadership at the middle levels as well as undermining the government's ability to administer services.
If these people were ever to be linked to an act of terrorism on US soil (whether they actually committed the deed or not) we believe the US President will be forced to respond with some sort of punitive attack. Such a mission will not take long, but it would necessitate at least a carrier battle group to be deployed to the region. Such a deployment would be a fortunate thing if it occurred around the same time our offensive in Europe.
United States
Ever since the Great Stock Crash of 2005, when a rampant computer virus closed down entire industries, the US economy has been flat and has never again been as heady and robust as it was back around the turn of the millenium. A new generation of 'burned' investors are now more apt to buy Treasury bonds than internet stocks, and, not surprisingly, have elected a more conservative, wait-and-see type Administration to office.
Our Great Leader, Komrad Putin, took advantage of this timid leadership and made several bold moves against the US without reprisals. The most significant was immediately following the Chechnya affair, when the US tried to push through UN sanctions against us for our handling of that situation. Putin responded by ordering the nationalizing of all US assets in this country, and the subsequent removal of most American business personnel -- thus making their UN action look feeble by comparison. (Our lost revenue from Western investments was more than compensated for by the takeover of US assets and by our worldwide arms sales over the next several years).
The nationalization process suddenly gave us billions of US dollars worth of capital to work with, which we used for rebuilding and modernizing our armed forces. The US, meanwhile, which was just being hit by the stock crash and the virus, went in the opposite direction, preferring a strong retirement fund to a strong military. In fact, their military was downsized even more than it had been previously during the latter part of the 20th century. US commitments to foreign treaties in Europe and in Korea began to show their strain, and a gradual drawdown of US presence overseas was beginning to be seen. Today, current US force projection is less than half of what it was in the year 2000.
Concurrent with this decline in the size and readiness in the US military are even more threats throughout the world to US security and interests. The Americans' reliance on stable, worldwide economies and Middle East oil make them highly vulnerable to terrorist attacks, and rogue nations such as Libya, Iraq and Iran have been exploiting this at every opportunity. In addition, Cuba is working with us to further the cause of socialism in both Latin America and Africa, which will no doubt keep the US diverted as well. And through our friendships and military assistance to countries such as Yugoslavia, Somalia and Angola, the US is likely stretched pretty thin these days trying to keep tabs on it all. Our military analysts have decided that it is only a matter of time before the US re-evaluates their policy of force reductions and once again recommits to a strong military presence in order to protect its interests. It would seem then that this period represents perhaps the lowest ebb of American military presence; if so, it would make it the perfect time to strike.
Vietnam
In Russia's view, Vietnam has betrayed the integrity of Marxist philosophy with its almost capitalist-like management of finances and backroom dealmaking with foreign oil companies. For this reason relations between Vietnam and other communist countries -- including Russia, China and Cuba -- have been in decline over the last twenty years as this country moves closer into the sphere of Western influence. Still, it is hard to argue with the success Vietnam has had in establishing a fairly strong, stable economy and in providing for its people.
Vietnam's relatively good economy has no doubt caught the eye of China, who still regards Vietnam, like Taiwan, as "a rich province that got away." The fact that China has deployed a significant number of troops along its border with Vietnam is no accident, and is considered every bit as dangerous as the buildup near Taiwan. If a Chinese invasion should occur, the US would undoubtedly be the first to hurt from it. To protect its own interests as well as support possible UN action, the US may be forced to act in defense of Vietnam -- which would certainly be a most ironic twist of fate, given their history in the region. GRU analysts, however, believe that only the most egregious attacks by China could enrage the American public enough into supporting this kind of action .
Yugoslavia
[Updated 7/10/09] After having been bombed into submission by the US in 1999, Yugoslavia spent most of the last decade rebuilding its decimated infrastructure. A few years ago, Russia began to helping to accelerate this rebuilding process with equipment, money and engineers, in exchange for overfly rights for Russian aircraft. Yugoslavia now boasts fully rebuilt and modernized communications and power facilities, and has no doubt helped to restore faith in the government among the people. Yugoslavia's armed forces, especially those of Serbia, have been rebuilt as well, largely through the purchase of early-model Russian weapons that flooded the market in 2005. While some of these forces have been deployed to the south, near Kosovo, the lion's share of them has been deployed to the western border near northern Bosnia and Croatia, two other areas where Serbia feels like it should be the supreme power in the region.
Alarmed at yet another buildup of Serbian forces in this region, NATO has increased its share of the commitment to the IFOR ground force (though only slightly) but only from the WEU contingent. It remains to be seen whether American carrier support will also be making a continued presence in the region.
END REPORT.