GRU
Military Intelligence Directorate
Intel Report: British deployments
Report Filed: Dec 31, 2010
General
Most of Britiain's surviving ground forces from the Falklands have either arrived by airlift or are en route by ship from Ascension Island in the South Atlantic. These include 1 Royal Marines battalion and 2 battalions from the 19th Mechanized Infantry Brigade. However, the Royal Marines battalion is no doubt still battle-weary from having been fighting up until a week ago, and the British 19th Brigade has also been badly beaten and demoralized, with only a third of its original numbers surviving.
Fortunately for us, the British lost the entire 16th Air Assault Brigade when the HMS Ocean sank on Dec. 24. This leaves only the 1st Bn., 4th Airmobile Brigade as the only remaining British rapid-response unit, and even this unit was greatly reduced in size a few months ago when it was surrounded and nearly destroyed by Serbian troops during the opening days of the war in Croatia.
As the Falklands war was relatively brief we do not believe
the supply issue to be critical for the UK. However, a large
part of their surplus material is still located in Ascension Island
and it will most likely take another 1 to 2 weeks before a sizeable
portion of it can be shipped back to the UK. Emergency shipments
could be transferred more quickly by air transports, but in small
increments only.
Perhaps the most crippling factor to NATO is Britain's loss of
sea power, as witnessed by the sinking of the helo carrier HMS
Ocean. This significantly diminishes Britain's ability to transport
heavy ground forces.
British Army
The following units are regarded as haaving rapid-response capability, and would likely be among the first ground units to be committed to ground operations:
For more information about these units, see the British Army Order of Battle.
Royal Navy -- Carriers
The Ark Royal carrier group is still mostly intact and will arrive sometime around Jan. 2, but the crews will most likely be weary from battle and magazine levels will be low. This leaves only one other Invincible-class carrier in the British fleet, the Illustrious, which is currently undergoing what appears to be routine maintenance at the naval base in Portsmouth.
[GM: Correction -- port for carriers is Portsmouth, not Devonport as stated earlier.]
The Princess Diana, a newly-built full-size, turbine-powered carrier, is undergoing maintenance following her sea trials in November of this year. No air wing was assigned to this carrier during those trials. According to intercepted reports from the British Admiralty this carrier was expected to be ready by Jan. 1 but it appears there have been delays at the shipyards of some kind. We have no knowledge of what caused the delays or how serious they are. This carrier is currently at Vickers Shipbuilding in Newcastle, England. The GRU is preparing a special report on this carrier which we expect to be completed soon.
Submarine operations
Of Britain's six Trafalgar attack submarines, two were recently seen at their slips at the sub base on the Clyde River (aka Faslane) Scotland, which were reportedly undergoing moderate maintenance and equpment upgrades. While the location of the other four are unknown at this time, we do know that two of them took part in the recent Falklands war, which ended officially on Dec. 26. Two out of a total of four Swiftsure class subs were tied up in port at Faslane while the other two were presumably on patrol.
Britain has six Trident SSBNs which we are hunting for, three
of which have deployed to unknown waters. One of the remaining
three Trident SSBN subs which were reported in their slips as
recently as last week has apparently put to sea, while IMINT data
indicates that the other two are being readied for deployment
as well.
Naval Aviation
One of our IMINT analysts noted that a squadron of RN Sea Harriers
has been training vigorously for long shifts in Yeovilton Naval
base in southwest England. It is worth noting that the RN lost
several of these aircraft in the Falklands.
Two squadrons of Nimrod maritime patrol aircraft (6 a/c per squadron)
continue to operate out of Kinloss, Scotland, while a detachment
of 3 Nimrods are still based at RAF Lerwick in the Shetland Islands.
Another 3-aircraft detachment is located in St. Mawgen, near
Lands End. The missing fourth squadron is still on Ascension
Island in the South Atlantic, which could return at any time now
that the Falklands war is over.
RAF
The RAF has taken some losses to two of its fighter squadrons during the Falklnds war, both of which are undergoing maintenace and repair at Ascension Island in the South Atlantic. These aircraft could return to Britain relatively soon, depending on how quickly they can be repaired.
Britain's fleet of aerial reconnaissance assets has been only marginally affected by the Falklands war, as maritime and AEW patrols (P-3 and E-3 AWACS, respectively) continue to maintain nearly continuous surveillance of the Norwegian Sea as far north as the Faroe Islands as well as the North Sea, Irish Sea and English Channel. This represents an increase previous patrol patterns over the last year or so in which patrols tended to only spot-check one or two of these regions on any given day, and nighttime patrols were not conducted nearly as often. Only two squadrons of (3) E-3 AWACS were on duty during the Falklands crisis, but this did not seem to reduce the number of aircraft in the daily rotaions. The third squadron returned to Waddington on Dec. 26.
IMINT studies reveal a higher number of ground crew and maintenance teams at all RAF bases. This mirrors similar increases we have seen in other NATO countries as well.
END REPORT