DATE: Jan. 1, 2010

Encryption: High

To: CINC, Northern Theater Command

Cc: All Northern Theater staff

From: GenShtab

Re: Mission Objectives (Clarification)

Comrades --

Our chiefs of staff have just been presented with the latest reports from the GRU on the status of the enemy's strategic sealift capabilities. Based on this updated information, we can now clarify your objectives in this theater and provide you with guidance on just what it would take to fulfill your mission -- to control the Atlantic -- and secure a great victory for the Motherland.

As before, the general objective is to sink allied shipping. But now, we can define that somewhat more specifically in terms that are measureable, so that you can better plan and coordinate your operations for the greatest possible success. Basically, we can win this war either one of three ways: 1) By sinking military lift from North America as the ships try ot make their way to Europe -- which could result in an instantaneous knockout blow -- 2) By sinking a massive amount of general (non-military) merchant shipping and starving countries like the UK into submission while at the same time reducing NATO's longterm sealift assets (This will take more time, but will be just as effective), or 3) a combination of 1 and 2.

Let us look at each possible objective in more detail.

Objective 1. Sinking the US military lift at sea.

Sinking the ships of the US Military Sealift Command (MSC) would achieve the most spectacular victory for the Motherland in the least amount of time, as it would send all of NATO's reinforcements and supplies to the bottom of the ocean in one fell swoop. We know that the US has around 60 ships specifically designated as military lift assets which are currently in US ports at this time. The total capacity of these ships comes to an estimated 2.5 million tons, when loaded -- far more than enough to support a major counterattack and break the back of our great offensive if these ships should land in Europe intact. Even if half of these ships were to arrive, NATO defenses could be bolstered long enough to eventually exhaust our attacking divisions, which means our one opportunity to win the war would eventually be lost.

The following is an estimate of how much tonnage of military sealift we must sink in order to ensure victory:

2 million tons -- Decisive Victory (50 points)

1.5 million tons -- Major Victory (40 points)

1.0 million tons -- Marginal Victory (30 points)

750, 000 tons -- Draw (25 points)

500,000 tons -- Marginal Defeat (20 points)

300,000 tons -- Major Defeat

100,000 tons -- Decisive Defeat (0 points)

According to our top military strategists, we predict that these ships will have tp leave port within the next 2 o r 3 days so that they arrive in Europe sometime before Jan. 15. (As of 2010, all theories regarding a WW3 scenario agree that NATO cannot last longer than 20 days against a concerted Russian offensive.)

Objective 2. Sinking Allied shipping, wherever it sails.

While general types of merchant vessels may not be as valuable as fully loaded munitions ships, if we sink enough of them we can still win the war -- even if we never sank a single tank-carrying ro-ro ship or troopship. Merchant ships will be relatively unprotected, and if we can locate and sink enough of them we will gradually begin to starve countries like the UK into submission or at the very least threaten to ruin their economies. At the same time, we will be reducing the amount of available sealift available to the enemy longterm.

The following is an estimate of how much shipping we would have to sink in order to meet our objectives:

5 million tons -- Decisive Victory (50 points)

4 million tons -- Major Victory (40 points)

3 million tons -- Marginal Victory (30 points)

2.5 million tons -- Draw (25 points)

2 million tons -- Marginal Defeat (20 points)

1 million tons -- Major Defeat (10 points)

500,000 tons -- Decisive Defeat (0 points)

Already you have begun to destroy some of these vessels, giving us an early start to winning the war thorugh this objective. This is indeed fortunate, because merchant shipping is expected to become more and more difficult to locate with each passing day, as ships run for safety in protected ports. Better to sink as many as we can, while we can, before they begin to form organized convoys under the coordinated protection of NATO forces.

Objective 3. Sinking both military sealift and merchant shipping.

This plan allows us to pursue Objectives 1 and 2, each one serving as a hedge against the other, in case one doesn't pan out. Victory will be determined by adding the the two point totals together.

More intel will be provided over the next few hours to help you in the hunt for allied shipping, but in the meantime just know that the choice is yours. We can go for a concerted attack on the US military sealift (assuming we can locate it) or we can simply sink shipping indiscriminantly, thus causing shortages and public panic. Or, alternatively, we can go for a mix of both.

I'm sure that whichever course you follow you will help lead us to ultimate victory for the Motherland.

The GenShtab