CENTRAL

INTELLIGENCE

AGENCY

FOR SERVICE USE ONLY

CIA Study: The Rise of the Russian Union (2000-2009)

This study briefly summarizes the political and social changes that have led to the formation of the Russion Union.

The past decade has so far been a time of great pride and prosperity for Great Russia, which one may consider surprising considering the dubious way in which the millenium began. The Russian Federation, as it was known then, was wracked by organized crime, drugs and economic strife. The country was becoming completely dependent on foreign money to prop up its economy, and its military had become virtually impotent. In fact, the Russian Army was the subject of much ridicule around the world for its ineffectiveness during the First Chechen campaign (1994-1996). When the Army did finally start making some headway in the Second campaign (1999-2000), they were denounced by the international community for their ostensibly brutal methods after levelling most of Grozny. The Russian government ignored the accusations, citing an "information war" being conducted by the West.

President Vladimir Putin (acting, Jan. 1, 2000, inaug. Apr,20), facing diplomatic attacks as well as prolonged guerilla resistance after the full-scale war had ended, and feeling the pressure of the people to put an end to the conflict once and for all, finally unleashed an all-out air and ground insertion into Georgian territory striking Chechen bases inside Georgia in a simultaneous, coordinated effort. The result was a complete success, eliminating the entire senior leadership of separatists in one quick blow, and with it their resolve to fight. With the Chechyan collapse, official (and pro-West) Georgian leadership was widely discredited. A pro-Russian minority leader came to the fore, filling the power vaccuum and carrying the local elections that year. By 2001, Georgia was firmly promoting cooperation with the Russian-Belorussian Union, and Armenia joined it outright, bringing most of Caucasus into the Russian fold once more.

In 2002 Russia saw more turmoil in the south during a situation which became known as the Fergana Crisis -- a hotly contested conflict between local FSU states and insurgent central-Asian Islamists (Tajik, Uzbek, Afghan) seeking to control the Fergana Valley and to set up a fundamentalist regime there. The weak and ill-prepared local governments of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, unable to withstand the massive onslaught, applied to Russia for help.

Once again Russian Army units executed a well conceived strategy by the Russian General Staff. Elite forces (the mainstay of which was composed of seasoned and lavishly equipped Chechnya vets) secured the mountain ranges and passes with large-scale airmobile operations, effectively isolating the Fergana Valley. In the following summer campaign, the multi-republic coalition force cleared the valley of all remaining separatists. Realizing that the peace would not hold once Russian troops left, however, both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan joined the new Russian state ("Russian Union" became its official title; "Great Russia" is now an accepted colloquical name).

By November of 2002 Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan were pushed to sign an Accord of Military Cooperation, effectively giving the Russian Union control of their militaries as an auxillary army.

In 2003, a military coup took place in Uzbekistan, and a new pro-Russian authority was installed. While we do not have any hard proof, it appears likely the minority leader was secretly being supported by the Russian government, specifically the Russian Federal Security Bureau, or FSB. CIA operatives leaked this information to the world press in an effort to incite international outcry over the Russian government for instigating this takeover. But the new authority was very successful in asserting control, and was able to convince the population to vote in support of the new power in a hastily held plebiscyte.

In 2004, with rumblings of a similar coup about to occur in their country, Kazakhstan officially joined the Russian Union. Putin was overwhelmingly re-elected to the Presidency for a second term. Shortly afterward there were some rumors of a brutal power struggle during the elections, for many key power figures were mysteriously removed on corruption charges, or quietly replaced.

The year 2005 marked several major events, beginning with a re-igniting of an old dispute between Russia and Japan over the Northern Territories. This region, which includes the Kuril Islands just north of Japan and southern Sakhalin, was ceded to Russia after World War II -- a provision of the surrender pact that Japan never recognized officially, and repeatedly tried to reverse. Newly discovered ore deposits have made these islands far more lucrative to both economies, and Japan decided it was time to enforce the return of the islands - with carrot, or stick, or both. A numerous Chinese-Korean-Japanese community in the Russian Far East was widely infiltrated by Japanese services, and a serious unrest was ignited - while a Japanese fleet set sail to the north to show its support.

Putin could not abide by this warlike action, and responded in kind. The Pacific Fleet - largely mothballed until that time - managed to deploy (through titanic efforts of both military and civilian authorities), and was reinforced by a powerful airborne-marine strike force. The Japanese fleet, not actually expecting such a lively response and intimidated by a suspected convergence of Russian submarines, decided to back down. The insurrection was decisively put down, and islands stayed under Russian control.

Later that same year, another showdown occurred, this time a domestic one: Purtin had declared an all-out war against Russia's powerful organized crime system. In gradual stages, Putin increased the authority of Federal Security Bureau (restoring its control over most of other security services, making it closer to former KGB in structure and power), giving the Bureau carte blanche authority to remove key mob leaders "by any means necessary." This included the use of some extra-constitutional measures, including a significant increase in the use of secret special forces (FSB "M Squads," the "M" standing for "Midnight," or "Murder," depending on who you ask.) While there was a small outcry over the infringement of civil rights, the success of the campaign appeared to quiet these dissenting opinions (although we suspect that some of the more outspoken critics were most likely "visited" by M-Squad operatives, hence their recent silence.) With little opposition to these methods, the restructuring of the FSB was eventually institutionalized by being adopted into the RU Constitution.

2005 was also the year of what was one of the largest commercial enterprises in world history, involving the sale of almost the entire Russian arsenal of pre-1980s weapons at much reduced prices. This event, known as the Great Arms Sale of 2005, drew an unprecedented number of buyers -- and a tremendous influx of cash -- from all over the world. The sudden increase in hard currency allowed Russia to finally resolve the issue of its external debt, which in turn led to a profound uptrend of the economy. Most of the new surplus funds were spent on a long overdue overhaul of Russia's armed forces. This overhaul extended over the next few years, allowing the Russian military to finally field most of its 1995-era projects.

In 2006 another crisis developed -- the Crimea Insurrection -- where Crimean Tatars, sponsored by Turkey and various Muslim militants, executed a violent coup to install the Free Crym Republic. This led to a great deal of blood and destruction, and very quickly local Ukrainian forces were overrun while Sevastopol was barely held by the Black Sea Fleet (still divided at that time into Ukrainian and Russian parts). The Ukraine desperately tried to avoid Russian involvement, but was apparently unable to crush the insurrection and the Russian Union finally intervened "on the behalf of the ethnic Russian population." Russia began its offensive with an airborne-marine shock assault on Yalta and Eupatoria, followed by slow but successful campaign in the Crimea Mountains that much resembled the Chechnya and Fergana operations. The Ukrainian Army, after taking terrible losses in its initial actions in the war but now in full cooperation with RU forces, soon cleared the Crimea plains.

But the Ukraine soon erupted in political turmoil, as the government was blamed for its apparent ineptitude to cope with the crisis. Much of the Russian population along with military factions began to promote "betrayal in the capital" charges. After several pro- and anti-Russian coups the Ukraine officially moved to join Russia, backed by most of the Ukrainian military. The Ukrainian nationalists retained control of the western region and continued to fight, but did not have the heavy-war capability to take on the Russian Union, whose armed forces had by now been impressively rebuilt and re-trained. By 2008, the remaining nationalists lost their hold on the last Ukrainian city and were forced to transition to a guerilla-type resistance. This resistance (which was secretly receiving NATO support), came in the form of hit-and-run attacks staged out of southeastern Poland, a region which had become both a haven and a base of operations for Ukrainian refugees. The tides of unrest quickly spread throughout the Western Ukraine, Southeast Poland, Southwest Belorussia, and Moldova -- destabilizing the entire region.

It was at this juncture that Alexandr Voronov, a decorated Russian hero in the previously mentioned campaigns, was elected to succeed Putin. Wasting no time in sending a message to the public, Voronov ordered a serious mobilization of forces for a systematic sweep throughout the Western Ukraine region, driving the last of the separatists out of Russia's borders. It appeared from his speeches and from the level of forces deployed that Voronov had no intention of stopping at the border if the raids continued. NATO, hampered by factionalism and reluctant to provoke a Russian incursion into Poland, withdrew its support. The rebellion collapsed a few weeks later.

This concludes the brief overview of Russian Union history from the years 2000-2009. For further information on any of the events during the above-mentioned period, please direct your inquiries to the CIA Historical Archive, Langley, Virginia.