CLASSIFIED MATERIAL

CIA Special Report: Opposition movement to Mubarek's leadership in Egypt

7/10/09

Mubarek has been under seige by a strong, vocal minority of the Egyptian population for his conciliatory posture toward Israel and his apparent lack of support for other Arab nations, in particular Syria, who has been intermittently at war with Israel for quite some time. This opposition movement is being led by members of the Al Jihad, the covert fundamentalist movement that was officially linked to the assassination of Anwar Sadat in 1981.

A number of arrests have taken place in recent months, the most notable being that of General Ahmed Farak, Egypt's Army Chief of Staff who is currently standing trial and who was long considered a personal friend of Mubarek. Israel's MOSSAD has found that Farak has fundamentalist leanings in his family background and has secretly been a member of the Al Jihad almost since its inception. It is believed that he may have been planning some sort of military coup to force Mubarek's resignation, but was compromised before he could gain such support. Other arrests include Farak's personal aide-de-camp and two brigadier generals, all of whom also had fundamentalist tendencies and were fiercely loyal to Farak.

With the discovery of this plot, it is likely that the security within the military will be tightened and that any further attempts at conducting a military coup will be difficult. The Al Jihad may have to resort to other measures to oust Mubarek from power. This may prove difficult, particularly at the moment, as Egyptian authorities intensify their hunt for Al Jihad leaders.

The leadership and command structure of the Al Jihad has been difficult to identify, as it operates very quietly and covertly, with strong ties to the religious sector. This prevents Egyptian authorities from using strongarm, secret-police tactics lest the general population be further incensed against the government.

One of the top leaders of the Al Jihad is suspected to be an elderly imam (priest) named Abdul Kharim Ramahd, codenamed "the Worm," who has been connected to many of the Al Jihad terrorist crimes and is known to operate out of the city of El Minya, about 150 miles south of Cairo. We do not have enough evidence as of yet to say it is him for certain, but many leads from both our office and the MOSSAD point to him as a probable kingpin in the organization. Ramahd is known to be a staunch supporter of the PLO, which in turn has been a strong financial backer of the Al Jihad.

We are at this time uncertain whether to inform Egyptian authorities about what we know about the Worm, since it is possible such information could be intercepted by the Al Jihad and alert him before enough evidence can be compiled for his arrest. This is especially true given the degree to which the Al Jihad has penetrated Egyptian leadership, as seen in the example of General Faruk. On the other hand, if Mubarek's government were alerted that Ramahd was a prime suspect, they could probably conduct a much more effective investigation locally than we or the MOSSAD could from thousands of miles away. Any investigation leading to the arrest and conviction of Ramahd would no doubt have a devastating impact on Al Jihad operations and help preserve the peace in Egypt. This, in turn, would free our forces for use in other areas of the world where our help may be more desperately needed.

Any decision as to whether or not to inform the Egyptian government about Ramahd will be deferred to the J3 Operations team.

END REPORT.