Defense
Defense
Intel Report
Re: Analysis of Activity on Kola Peninsula
August 1, 2009
Background:
In general, the Northern Fleet is in a complete shambles and has been for a number of years. The fleet has only one carrier and one battlecruiser that could be considered operational, and the carrier's air wing has not flown a single mission in over three years. (We believe this is due to the fact that its air wing is without trained carrier pilots.) Other ships have been observed abandoned in their berths or sometimes stranded on a sandbar, neglected and forgotten, most likely because government resources were focused on reclaiming the Caucases and Ukrainian territories where the Northern Fleet has had no jurisdiction.
Most of the sub fleet is considered non-operational and has been waiting in port for the sub yards to repair a crack in their reactor core, a problem that is manufacturing-related and has caused much controversy among international environmentalists. According to these and other sources, the crack inevitably appears after ten to twenty years of service and eventually leads to an on-board meltdown; it's just a matter of time before this sequence of events occurs. Consequently, only a few nuclear-powered subs are currently capable of longterm patrols, though as each sub's reactor core is repaired the number of operational boats increases. Still, we estimate at the current repair levels it will be five or six months before the entire sub fleet will once again be seaworthy.
For the last year or so, repair yards and ship yards in the Kola region have been running at overtime work levels, indicating that the Northern Fleet may have some life to it after all. Even at these level, however, it is unlikely more than a handful of surface ships will see active duty any time this year.
Satellite Analysis:
A KH12, Lacrosse (IMINT) and Mercury (SIGINT) sattelites were tasked to the Kola mission, as requested, during the period from July 21 to July 27. (Our only KH13 does not overfly this region, presently.) Weather was clear or partly cloudy for the entire duration of the mission, providing excellent imagery for our analysts.
IMINT Analysis
Enhanced photography taken over the course of the mission indicates low to moderate shallow water patrol activity throughout the Kola Peninsula. Coastal patrols conducted by corvettes (Grisha IIIs, IVs and Vs) and missile craft (Tarantuls) appear to be making regular racetrack patrol loops in the entrance to the White Sea on a daily basis, with occasional sorties to the Barents Sea by a larger vessels of the Sovremenny, Krivak or Udaloy class. Most of these larger vessels do not venture out much farther than the North Cape region unless they are conducting a fleet-wide exercise which they are known to two or three times a year. Generally, this is considered to be about the same level of activity that we've observed for the past several years.
Four SSNs were seen taking on provisions and disappeared from their slips on July 30, which is also typical of this time of the month which is when certain subs in the Norwegian, Kara and Bartents Seas are relieved of their 3-month patrol duty. (We should pick up readings any day now of about the same number of subs returning from each of these locations).
An inspection of the ship repair yards indicate all berths are fully employed with a few berths working overtime shifts. This is down slightly from July 1, when the entire yard was working overtime. Ships under repair include two Kievs, one Kirov and one Kara class. Construction yards are also busy, with some of its workforce working overtime. Construction sites are covered, preventing our seeing the size or type of the ships being constructed.
Naval infantry units were observed conducting local drills this week in or around their bases. These drills appeared to be focused on opposed amphibious landings and physical fitness training.
Naval aviation was perhaps the busiest of the three Fleet branches, with an air wing of Su-27K fighters practicing basic skills such as takeoffs and landings on a short service runway while the fleet's attack aircraft practiced a wide array of techniques, including night flying, formation flying and precision strike, mid-air refueling, etc. Closer inspection of naval aviation areas indicates that most of the Fleet EW/ recce aircraft are no longer stationed in the region. We suspect these aircraft may have either been sold, scrapped or transferred to another military district or Fleet.
On three occasions this week, a group of high-ranking Russian admirals were seen escorting one or more admirals from a foreign navy as they toured the Northern Fleet repair yards. KH12 imagery, even at full-enhancement, was not able to tell the identity of the visitors but judging from the stripes on their sleeves they appeared to be all rear or vice admirals. The tour did not include the slips where the Russian fleet was tied up, only the repair yards.
SIGINT Analysis
Very little traffic was detected between the Russian Admiralty and the Northern Fleet, which would suggest there are no plans in the making for immediate deployments. A moderate level of communication was detected among the Northern Fleet headquarters and its branch bases, but no more than normal. Communications between headquarters and Northern Fleet subs appears to be relying on space-based burst technology via satellite, and surface tenders equipped with low-frequency transmitters. While we have been able to intercept Northern Fleet messages at will, our cryptographers are unable to crack the Russian code, as the Northern Fleet is known to change codes frequently. We did intercept one message over an open channel, however (the "Rykov" message) the analysis of which will be provided in a separate report.
END REPORT.