Defense
Defense
Intel Report
Re: U2 overflights of Libyan-Egyptian border
July 10, 2009
This report is in response to J3-6 request for U2 overflights of the Libyan-Egyptian border. This supplements the report on both the Libyan and Egyptian air forces and air defenses (see Intel documents). The photo-recon missions were conducted during the period from July 5 to July 9, and covered an area about 360 miles wide. The weather during all 4 days of this mission was sunny and clear.
Ground Forces
Libyan ground forces have been building up more than we originally thought, with as many as three armored brigades and one mechanized infantry brigade in the north and another armored brigade in the south (see map). These forces seem to have been in position for more than a week, given the signs of waste, tire tracks and other disturbances in the otherwise clean, windswept landscape.
Another column of tanks were barely perceptible coming from the direction of Benghazi on July 9, along with a column of mechanized infantry units coming from the Ajdabiya region. These forces were just outside the viewfinder range of the U2, making it difficult to determine how large the new formation were.
On the Egyptian side, only three armored brigades and one mech brigade were seen near the Libyan border in the north, and no defenses were seen in the desert region in the south. These units were not appear to be hulled down, camouflaged or in any way prepared for imminent battle. It is likely that Egyptian defenses are thoroughly unaware of the recent build-up. A number of Egyptian border patrols (APCs) appeared active, however. If the weather is clear, these patrols will most likely be able to spot a dust cloud from approaching tanks some 10 or 20 miles away, allowing plenty of time to alert their higher command.
Aircraft
A patrol of two MiG-23 fighters was seen at all times during all daylight hours in the vicinity of both Gamal Abdul Nasser Air Base, southwest of Tobruk and at Jabal al Uwaynat in the far south (see maps).
Other sightings
With each brigade, two batteries of quad Crotale SAMs were seen in ready-to-fire position.
A large fuel convoy was seen in the southwest on July 9th, heading toward Jabal al Uwaynat.
A battalion of towed artillery was seen transiting from Tobruk to Bardiyah. A second battalion was seen 30 miles south of Bardiyah, stationary but still in towed mode.
Along with each of these two artillery batteries was a battery of quad Crotale SAMs.
2 Assad al Bihar corvettes were seen patrolling the Mediterranean about 60 miles northeast of Bardiyah.
A Dat Assawari frigate was seen on maneuvers north of Tobruk.
A submarine tender was seen in Tobruk harbor during the entire duration of the U2 overflights.
SIGINT, IR analysis
Thermal photography indicates all vehicles in the east showing a "cool" signature -- that is, their engines are mostly off and probably have been that way since before the mission was ordered to being.
ELINT analysis in the northern sector of the recon swath shows a moderate to high level of radio comms activity at each of the brigade headquarters relative to the peaceful/stationary posture of the forces under their command. Army headquarters in Tripoli was also somewhat active, which is generally not the case during routine training maneuvers.
COMINT analysis revealed a great deal of discussion about supplies, mainly concerning food and other human provisions. In general, the command net at the company level and below was ill-disciplined with lots of uncoded messages as well as a fair number of jokes and banter. The overall tenor of these messages displayed a casual sense of humor that seemed to belie the otherwise urgent nature of their activity. One noteworthy item: a tank company commander asked on an open channel about whether he had the latest Egyptian road map.
