Defense
Defense
Intel Report
Re: U2 Overflights of Yugoslavia and Bulgaria
July 10, 2009
Eight U-2 sorties were conducted over Yugoslavia and Bulgaria beween 7/1 and 7/10 by a detachment of the 9th Reconnaissance Wing based in Akrotiri, Cyprus, with four conducted in each country.
Yugoslavia
Serbian forces:
A convoy of 30 trucks was seen travelling from Serbia toward Zagreb, which were believed to be supplies earmarked for Serbian troops located outside of Zagreb in western Croatia. Some trucks were towing 155mm artillery. Serbian forces in the Zagreb area appear to consist of mostly T-55s and BTR80s -- not the most top-of-the-line equipment -- and are currently spread out in a large semi-circle around Zagreb.
The Serbian navy, most of which is based at Bar, does not look to be very active at this time. All 4 of their frigates (2 Kotor, 2 Split [Soviet Koni]) remained tied to their slips with little crew or shore support activity. Workers and crew were seen entering and leaving the port facilities but only a few patrol craft -- and no subs -- were not seen leaving their port for the Adriatic.
Significant pilot, ground crew and logistical support crews were photographed at several of Serbia's airfields, with several aircraft conducting what appeared to be air-to-air combat training exercises. These aircraft included MiG-21s and some newer MiG-29s.
Croatian forces:
On the Croatian side, an estimated two or three brigades of defenses have been arrayed against the Serbian threat, creating what appears to be "Mexican standoff" -- at least for now. Croatia is light on support, however, with its shorter-ranged 152 mm artillery and only 1 squadron of MiG-21s. Its navy, while well-supported in terms of base facilities (from the former Yugoslav Republic days) is small, with only 1 corvette, 1 submarine (modified Una) and a handful of missile-torpedo craft.
A continued buildup of Serbian forces could sway the balance in their favor -- a situation to wary of for sure, given Serbia's history of opportunistic aggression. At the same time, a wreckless war could devastate Croatia's flourishing steel industry, undermining the very reason for the takeover.
Bulgaria
U2 flights were not able to detect much, if any, in terms of troop movements in Bulgaria. The only troop buildup of significance was a mechanized infantry battalion that appears to have been moved to the Greek border then split up into a large picket line of recon platoons along the Macedonian frontier. Perhaps even more noteworthy is the fact that a decidedly large surplus of newly-manufactured Russian T-80-type tanks (built under license agreement with Moscow) have been seen shipped from a factory complex outside of Sofia and taken by train to the various armories and depots within Bulgaria. Many rail cars appear to be held up, at those depots, however, apparently unable to unload due to lack of storage area. No tank crews, however, were spotted in the vicinity of these tanks, but rather a small force of military police, presumably to maintain equipment security.
September 1, 2009
Another week of surveillance of Yugoslavia and Croatia was conducted by U-2s of the 9th Reconnaissance Air Wing (Incrilik, Turkey) between August 25 and 31. Much has changed since the first overflights back in July.