Defense
Defense
CLASSIFIED MATERIAL
World Situation Report
The following report provides you with the latest DIA anlaysis of our current world situation for the purpose of determining which countries are most threatening to US interests. For a quick snapshot of the current threat status throughout the world, please refer to the DIA World Threat Map that accompanies this report. This map will be updated from time to time to show any changes in threat status as new information becomes available.
For a brief overview of the political, economic and military situation for most countries, please refer to the UN International Study located in the documents section of your planning cell.
Please note that this report will cover only general aspects of each country's armed forces such as overall size and disposition. For a listing of each country's weaponry and forces, please refer to the DIA International Order of Battle Survey.
Contents of this report:
High-Level Threats Low-Level Threats Allies & Non-aligned countries
The following nations are considered the most likely countries for initiating hostilities in the near future. While normal peacetime Rules of Engagement will be observed, all forward base commanders and Joint Theater Commanders and their subordinates are instructed to treat any encounters involving these countries with all possible caution.
Angola
Americans are now getting their first TV impressions of the horrors of Angolan poverty, genocide and corruption among the ruling police state fascists. While they will continue to flip the channel and watch "The Simpsons," for a month or two, it is just a matter of time before even our complacent John Doe eventually sits up and demands justice. The UN will be ineffectual due to Russia's veto, so that will leave the President to take matters into his own hands before the media has a field day with this. If he does, you can bet he's going to want first-class, verified-up-the-kazoo intel before he makes a move on this one.
Here's what we know beyond the headlines:
General Yuhu is a militaristic fascist, reminiscent of Papa Doc in Haiti during the 1970's; he's basically as corrupt as they come. We've traced a Swiss bank account to him with some hefty transfers of funds recently, indicating he is probably indeed on the take. One possibility is that he's providing "insurance" to mining companies to keep the diamond mines operating. We've known about this for years but didn't act on it because, well, let's just say we had our own interests in keeping the diamond mines productive, too. But now that there's a civil war breaking out we need to support the right side, and do it quickly.
Yuhu surrounds himself with bodyguards everywhere he goes, and has a huge network of paid informants -- some of them children -- keeping him abreast of any sign of rebellion in the various provinces. This makes it difficult for UNITA to organize the people, if not impossible. Cuban advisors are making things more difficult still, now that the government is getting wise to their guerrilla tactics. UNITA's freedom fighters are therefore contained to the jungles and mountains, and only sneak out at night to ambush or pass the word of democracy to the towns and villages. Still, if they can survive long enough for the notion of freedom to spread, the masses may rise up in support of UNITA. This would stop the flow of diamonds, and Yuhu's main source of revenue. From there it's just a matter of time until he's deposed.
Just as worrisome as Yuhu is the involvement of Russia and Cuba. One scenario that's all too easy to picture: Russia "sells" Angola top-of-the-line weapons with no money down, zero percent financing, UNITA is crushed. Russia then gains a new puppet republic and a possible naval/air base. Such a base would mean a strategic coup for Russia in the event of a war between the US and the Bear, as it gives them a warm-water port from which to strike both the Atlantic lifeline to Europe and our oil imports from the Middle East. As the threat of war declines with Russia (which we hope it will during the next few months through heightened diplomatic efforts) so too will Angola's strategic importance, but for now this situation must be regarded as a red-hot issue.
Argentina
The sudden political change in Argentina to a communist state marks what could be a prototype for revolution in the Western Hemisphere, and could mark the beginning of a Cubano-Russian axis of power in Africa and Latin America. CIA operatives are reporting a very close association between Presidente Del Fuego and Castro, with frequent trips made by these leaders to each other's country.
Del Fuego is not very well known in the political world and his vision for Argentina's future seems just as mysterious. He makes rare appearances in public, letting his cabinet officials and military leaders do the talking for him -- apparently from a prewritten script. It might be worthwhile to have the CIA work up a personality profile on him.
As far as his threat to take over the Falklands, that has been worked into every speech of every Argentinian leader since the war with the UK ended. Seems to be a price of admission for leadership, whether or not these promises are ever kept. On the other hand, Argentina is much stronger than it was in the early 80's, and Great Britain is weaker, if anything. Del Fuego could be gambling that the Royal Navy, which has been showing less of a presence in this region in recent years, will be hard pressed to defend these islands again without support from the US.
The real area of concern is its conflict with Chile. Hostilities between Argentina and Chile are raging at far more heated levels than is being reported in the press. And the issue that no one is talking about is uranium. There is a large deposit of this ore in the northern Andes near the peaks of a mountain range in Chile, though the lion's share of the vein runs under the border on the Argentinian side. Until recently Argentina paid no mind to the mining companies operating in this area but is now apparently intent on driving them out -- though we are unsure at this time whether it is because they know about, and want to secure, the uranium or merely because of their recent concerns over border security.
The military buildup that is going on is of particular concern to us, given the sizeable investments our banks have made in Chilean businesses (including its mining companies). Any large scale fighting in the region will eventually be covered by the US media, sending the stock market into a panic. A full scale war would be even more disastrous, especially if it occurs anytime soon. While Argentina has only strengthened its ground forces marginally (launching a full-scale ground attack would be foolhardy for either side unless it could vastly outnumber the opponent, since the mountainous terrain heavily favors the defender), its air force and navy have been upgraded significantly, and both now carry a tremendous amount of striking power. Chile, meanwhile, has de-emphasized defense spending in the last few years, concentrating instead on promoting tourism. Our military analysts predict that if a war broke out between the two countries at this time, Argentina could devastate every Chilean city inside of two weeks which would in turn cause the collapse of its entire financial economy (and along with it, a good chunk of ours). It is recommended that the US military maintain some amount of pressure on Del Fuego and his generals as a warning to keep him in check. So until this situation cools somewhat, it is therefore advisealbe to consider Argentina a high-level threat.
Bulgaria
Zhezhevsky makes Tito look like a liberal. With the Bulgarian people cut off from Western views (even Radio Free America is regularly jammed by the government) they are easy prey for brainwashing and for being incited to action -- even war. The public has now firmly come around to Zhezhevsky's belief that Macedonia was taken away from them unfairly (even though this occurred decades before most of the population was born) and are obediently following his call to rise up and join forces against Greece "and the evil NATO syndicate." Military parades and inspection tours are an everyday event, enlistments are up, and the call to war is in the streets. To Bulgarians, the notion of taking back Greek Macedonia is beginning to be thought of as a reality that could happen in their lifetime.
The question is, how far along are they in their military buildup? Since most of Bulgaria's heavy equipment -- tanks, APCs and artillery -- were acquired as non-delivered exports "off the books," we have no documentation that indicates how large an army they actually have. We have also not seen any unusual buildup of offensive capability along the Greek border, which would be the first signal of an imminent attack.
Greece, meanwhile, has responded to the threat by issuing warning statements to Bulgaria, and is now beginning to build up its defenses. Other WEU nations within NATO have offered to come to the aid of Greece if there is a fight, but our analysts predict that none of them will be able to deploy forces very quickly since most of NATO's rapid-response forces are currently earmarked for Poland.
On a side note, Bulgaria's claim over Macedonia used to also involve the Yugoslavian portion of Macedonia as well, but for some reason Bulgaria seems to have dropped this portion of the suit and apparently would be content with Greek Macedonia only. It appears that Yugoslavia's importance as a supplier of cheap steel may outweigh Bulgaria's newfound sense of historical justice.
Military analysts agree that Zhezhevsky could be a huge problem in the future not only as a destabilizing element in the Balkans, but as an unwitting Russian pawn used to divert NATO forces to the south, effectively opening up a second front in Europe should Russia have designs on invading Poland. For this reason, Bulgaria is currently rated as a high-level threat. If at a later date it turns out that the Russian threat in eastern Europe is insignificant or if Bulgaria's readiness to attack is not yet on the horizon, the Bulgarian problem will likely be downgraded to a lower threat status.
China
The big problem with China right now is that we may have a serious breach of security. In the wake of the "Stealth Scandal" and other offshoots of the fundraising fiasco, we've turned up evidence that there may be an extremely elaborate espionage system set up between the Washington and Beijing, or, another theory is that there may be a mole working in a fairly high-up position at the Pentagon. If this is the case, virtually all plans regarding China could be compromised. A major CIA counterintelligence effort (HUMINT) would have to be conducted in order to find and plug the leak, if one indeed exists.
China has long coveted the return of Taiwan to the motherland, but this is the first time we have seen this much activity brewing along the Taiwan Strait. China does not have a large enough 'gator navy to conduct a massive amphibious landing at this time, but China does have hundreds of tramp steamers in the region which could be used in a pinch to carry troops along with motorized skiffs or other small craft for the shoreward leg of the landing. The whole buildup could therefore be just a scare factor to intimidate Taiwan into entering negotiations for annexation -- or it could be the first stage of assembly of a "Chinese Armada" -- a massive ground force carried aboard a hundred freighters, tugs, tramp steamers, basically any ship under the Chinese flag that has room to carry troops or vehicles or both. Watch out for a sudden aggregation of such ships to appear in the region, which could dock, load up, and be ready to embark for Taiwan in 48 hours.
China is also building up forces along its border with Vietnam, and to a lesser extent, India and Russia. Watch out for any heating up of tensions between China and these other neighbors, as that will determine how secure China is and whether it can afford to start a war with Taiwan. One thing to keep in mind is that China will not likely take on more than one enemy at a time.
Vietnam is a high priority to US business interests and we would be bound to help the country fend off any overt attack from China. Given how the stigma of helping Vietnam would sit among the American people, however, we would only be able to lend supportin the form of supplies and military advise. Still, to do this, all sea lines of communication must be accessible. Keep an eye on the Chinese-Indonesia connection. The idea that the largest army in the world might team up with the largest navy in the western Pacific is a pretty unsettling thought for the US, and even more so for Taiwan whom we are bound to defend.
Also key is the degree of Chinese readiness to respond to a US attack on North Korea, should such an attack be ordered. A pre-emptive strike on a North Korean missile site that is threatening to launch a ballistic missile is an acceptable mission, but not at the risk of provoking Chinese intervention and starting a world war.
China is also highly covetous of the Spratly oilfields, which it could simply take by force even with the navy its got right now unless the US 7th Fleet makes this a priority patrol area. Doing so, however, will make the fleet less able to cover the Yellow Sea and the Sea of Japan in the event of hostilities in Korea.
Indonesia
Okay, we admit it. All the signs were there but we didn't see the writing on the wall in time. That "heroic military campaign" in East Timor we've heard so much about? Turns out the army simply opened fire on everyone that moved -- women, children, everyone -- then planted evidence later that showed they were hostile rebels. Basically it was a virtual mass genocide of nearly a third of the island's population. Made the Serbs from '91 look like lightweights.
Had we exposed Zanjak right away we might have gotten UN backing to go in and squash him like a bug, but we didn't. Suddenly we're dealing with a new puffed-up dictator, propped up by China but still a loose cannon in his own right who believes he is capable of doing anything he feels like. And right now, this loose cannon feels like aiming a cannon ball in the direction of the US. He doesn't have to fire far, either, since all he has to do is start sinking ships as they go by like ducks in a gallery. Those shipping lanes in and around Indonesian waters bring in more than a third of all US imports, and Zanjak knows it. If he does decide to flex his naval muscle in this way, get ready for a Wall Street panic and a ruptured US economy that may take years to rectify, even if the shipping lanes aren't threatened for more than a month or two.
We are beginning to suspect that Indonesia and China may be in league with each other, though not overtly. If any of you recall the kind of shadowy partnership China had with Malaysia during the Brunei affair you'll notice this has a familiar ring to it. During the entire campaign our efforts were continually hampered or distracted by China, either in the form of imported assassins, a secretive transit of a squadron of aircraft or a smuggled shipment of nuclear ballistic missiles. A similar tryst with Indonesia would no doubt cause at least as many headaches.
Indonesia's geography alone places the country in a highly strategic position, as it straddles some of the busiest sea lanes in the world. There are as many as a hundred US freighters travelling through those straits at any given time. It would be relatively easy for a large number of torpedo boats to hide in one of the many natural coves and inlets along the shore, make a fast attack on helpless shipping, then run back and hide and wait until the next merchant ship shows itself.
There may be other threats we haven't even considered yet. Australia is practically sitting there for the taking, if Zanjak wants to take it, but we have only recently begun to follow his actions and do not know much about his intentions or background at this time.
Iran
Among the four most hostile Middle Eastern countries -- Syria, Iran, Libya and Iraq (aka SILI) -- Iran is the most influential and in many ways is the real ringleader. And if Iran joins Syria in its war with Israel, the whole coalition will join together looking for Israeli blood. Iran's army is the largest of the four, and will be the straw that breaks Israel's back as the other three countries converge from the flanks. (Libya will only be able to provide air support, as Egypt will no doubt refuse to let its ground forces pass through its borders.) As an ally of Israel, the US will be drawn into a full-scale war which we can only win by committing a full army or more to the region along with several carrier battle groups -- all of which will not only be tremendously costly but will no doubt invite tyrants and hostile nations in other parts of the world to run wild, knowing that we will not have the resources to deal with a second war simultaneously.
This absolutely cannot be allowed to happen. All efforts must be made to dissuade, deter or prevent Iran from committing to war. One solution is to send a task force to the region as soon as possible, but one large enough to show we mean buisiness and make the Ayatollah think twice about declaring war. If we can keep Iran out of the war for a few months, eventually Syria will be forced to sue for peace and the whole SILI momentum will be lost. State can take over from there and patch together some accords of some kind, which will free up our task force for other duties.
Another solution would be to go to a full-court press using all intel resources available to get a quick, comprehensive look at the forces Iran is massing -- its ground deployments, bases, command post locations (including top-level leaders) and supply centers -- then pass this information along to Israel who will be able to strike pre-emptively, before a state of war officially exists. If all goes well, the Iranian army will be reduced to chaos and completely decapitated inside of a week. The conflict would instantly be resolved quickly, without the US having to commit any forces to the region at all. The downside would be that virtually all of our high-level intel resources (e.g. satellite, U2, Army SF) would be tied up for some weeks and would be unable to furnish much information on other regions.
Iraq
Although he has become wisened with age, Sadham Hussein still rules Iraq with an iron fist and apparently still dreams of a summer palace in Kuwait City. Oil revenues continue to be spent on Russian T-72 (IQ) tanks and APCs, far overstepping the treaty requirements set forth by the US after the Gulf War. Most of these forces are probably no better in terms of training or materiel than those deployed in 1990, but there are many who think that if Hussein were to strike Kuwait again, the U.S. may not be able to pull off an Arab unification against Iraq -- particularly since Libya is sure to be advocating in Iraq's behalf.
Iraq's army is already showing signs of mobilizing in reaction to the current war between Syria and Israel. Hussein, no doubt a lot more cautious about entering a war against a US ally, is likely waiting for Iran to lead the way before committing his own armed forces to the crusade.
The more alarming news about Iraq, however, is that satellite photos have determined a possibility that chemical weapons are again being developed in various localities outside of Baghdad. It is not known how far into development the project has gone, but we will continue to watch Iraq's activities in the next few weeks and to see if the materials being developed are confirmed to be chemical weapons. Depending on how near completion the project appears to be, the President may feel compelled to order a strike against the facility, with or without UN approval.
Libya
Col. Khadama is basically Hitler in a somewhat warmer climate. His hatred of Israel is only matched by his hatred of the US, and he expresses this hatred not only through his rabble-rousing speeches but also, we suspect, through his sponsoring of terrorist attacks, including an infamous one involving the bombing of the Sears Tower in Chicago. We suspect this was actually the work of Osama ben Ladin, the internationally notorious terrorist leader who we believe used Libya as a base of operations in order to train his people for the attack. Whether we catch ben Ladin or not, if our CIA boys can prove that Khadama aided and abetted him, we would no doubt be granted authority to give Libya a spanking it will remember -- which, if the past is any indication, should put a nice chill on any Libyan-sponsored terrorist activity for at least a year or so.
Until that time, however, Khadama will most likely continue his secret terrorist support as well as his antagonistic broadcasts. These speeches, incidentally, are proving troublesome in that they are inciting militant fundamentalists everywhere to join the ranks of terrorist groups which is only adding to the flood of terrorism that we already have. We believe, in fact, that he has been very influential in getting the Al Jihad, a fanatic religious sect based mainly in Egypt and other extremist groups to begin to rise up and usurp power "in the name of the Arab Brotherhood."
Meanwhile, we're following some sort of trouble brewing between Libya and Egypt, as Libyan tanks have deployed to within a few miles of the Egyptian border. Egypt is a moderate Arab country, which of course is anathema to Libya and has created a heated battle of words between their leaders, but advancing large forces to Egypt's doorstep will likely provoke a reaction that will take the friction between them to a whole new level. This situation is a potential threat to the security of the Middle East and to US interests in particular. Our greatest fear would be if Egypt were attacked and defeated by Libya, as Egypt has long been our greatest deterent against both Libyan and Iraqi aggression. With Egypt out of the picture there would be no buffer zone between Libya and Israel, and the Suez Canal could fall to Libyan control -- which of course would be a frightening thought. God only knows how much a barrel of oil would cost if this situation between Libya and Egypt escalates to a full-scale war.
North Korea
North Korea is as much of a threat today as ever. To the North Koreans, a "rejoining of the two Koreas" is a kind of manifest destiny that is inculcated into every school child. Their intention will always be to rule over South Korea. The only question is, when?
While North Korean training exercises and troop levels along the DMZ seem to be as strong as ever, we have not yet detected any substantial buildup in military equipment or stockpiling of supplies, two clues that would definitely signal a major attack is imminent. Still, while there are no obvious signs of imminent danger at this time, a number of events have occurred recently which has given us cause for concern. In two separate incidents this year, a North Korean air recon plane was spotted over South Korean airspace. In both cases they were intercepted and escorted back over to their own territory. One was in the vincinity of Camp Red Cloud, home of the US 2nd Infantry Division.
The North Korean government has been playing down its economic woes, but in reality its people are on the brink of starvation -- all of which puts its leadership in a desperate situation, politically. Exactly the kind of situation, in fact, in which war may be the only solution -- especially given the prosperity that South Korea is enjoying these days.
According to conventional wisdom, a North Korean attack would begin with a period of sudden and rapid organization near the DMZ as many of its heavy vehicles are believed to be parked inside hundreds of miles of underground tunnels not far from the border. Several divisions would be assembled and ready to attack within 48 hours. Air strikes and naval operations would be coordinated to attack all within a few hours of each other in order to maximize shock and overwhelm the US and South Korean forces. Follow-on divisions would follow to pursue and exploit any US units that are attempting to consolidate and organize. Our only hope is to either have plenty of advance warning, or, failing that, to have at least one carrier battle group in the region. If no carrier group is available, the last resort is to have all air force units in Japan on full alert in case they are needed to intercept and destroy T05 . Care must be taken not to overtax our combat air support (CAP)
The most critical concern regarding North Korea, however, is not its army, but its ballistic missiles. With the help of Chinese scientists, North Korea's missile program has been progressing steadily over the years and is quickly becoming a major threat to US security. Just last year, a solid-fuel, three-stage missile was fired over the North Pacific, landing within a 100 miles from the US coast. Obviously, it is only a matter of time before they can hit major US cities, and already they have a large arsenel of missiles capable of hitting bases in Sasebo, Japan, Okinawa and Guam. This threat is not acceptable, and we must work together to devise a plan that will limit, dismantle, or hopefully destroy any missile development program before it can be made operational.
Some military analysts theorize that a rapid deployment of ground forces into South Korea, supported by the threat of nuclear missiles on a launching pad near the Chinese border could well be a winnning strategy for keeping the US off-balance, as the US will probably not want to be the one to first use a nuclear weapon in such circumstances for fear of retaliation from China, and the beginning of WWIII.
Russia
Out of nowhere, it seems, the Bear is back, and looking hungry. Russia's 5th Shock Army, after crushing a large civil uprising of Ukrainian separatists (who fled to Poland where they ultimately disbanded after NATO pulled its support), is now poised along the Polish Border about 100 miles from Warsaw, fully rested, refueled and ready to invade Europe at a moment's notice. The10th Tank Army is also on station in the Ukraine, spread out along Poland's border as far south as the Czech Republic. In reaction to this sizeable threat, Poland has activated its three mechanized divisions in the Warsaw sector and 1 armored, 1 air assault, 1 mountain brigade in the Krakow sector. Germany's 7th Panzer Division is just now arriving to plug the hole between these two areas but this will not be nearly enough to stop a concerted Russian offensive if one is indeed in the works. Further elements of NATO's Allied Rapid Response Corps (ARRC) will be deployed to Poland over the next few weeks, but it is hoped that in the meantime we can diffuse the situation through diplomacy.
In spite of the massive Russian forces looming east of Poland, we have no evidence at this time to support that Russia has been scheming a major military offensive into Europe. In fact, if such an offensive had been part of Russia's plan it would have most likely commenced by now. One theory for the army not standing down is that Russian leadership somehow found out about NATO's support of the Ukrainian separatists, in which case this puffing and strutting of their army may be their way of "teaching us a lesson" for our meddling even though they have no intention on actually invading. On the other hand, it is also possible that while they never intended on launching an offensive at the outset, Russia may now see this moment as an "opportunity of history" and invade anyway, knowing they may never find NATO so unprepared like this again. All we can do at this point is to pray that our diplomatic corps will do their job while our NATO reaction forces deploy to the region as quickly as possible.
Russia has also been suspiciously busy in other corners of the world, too, including Somalia, Angola and Honduras, providing these emerging nations with modern weapons at highly favorable prices. It would appear that Russia is trying build its portfolio of client states in various regions of the world for the purpose of opposing US domination, and, if possible, perhaps even gain a military base in these countries from which to project power for its own interest. The latter possibility would be regarded as a major strategic threat to our forces -- especially if the situation in eastern Europe goes hot.
Regarding Putin's much-acclaimed success at eliminating the Russian mafia, you should be aware of something that was not mentioned in the United Nations study. He achieved this success by by greatly expanding the authority of the FSB (Federal Security Bureau, Russia's internal security arm) which appears to have used "extra-constitutional methods" to neutralize or silence key mob figures. "Midnight Squads," for example -- teams of night-vision equipped secret police, are rumored to have abducted certain known mob leaders who were subsequently never to be heard from again. This heightened degree of internal security could make US espionage efforts exceedingly difficult, to say the least.
Somalia
The big worry here is Russia. The Russians have established extremely close ties with the ruling Somalian clan through its highly favorable terms of sale of Russian weapons, and through its ongoing provision of military expertise. We suspect there is a quid-pro-quo of some kind going on, but we are unsure just what it is at this time. The connection with Cuba is unsettling as well, and the guerilla tactics the Somalians are learning could spell trouble if we ever need to send troops to this region again.
The ruling party in Somalia is known as Clan Tumaal, which is opposed by factions of another clan, called Clan Isaaq. The two clans are fierce enemies, but right now the Tumaal is in power and running the lion's share of the country's military. Gunfire is heard daily in the streets of Mogadishu and other cities, and there is a great need for food and medicine among the thousands of refugees. Since all US businesses and armed forces have been evicted from the country, however, the media has not been following the region so most Americans are completely unaware of what is going on in this war-torn country.
The Somalian warlords on both sides are completely corrupt. In spite of their religious prattling, they can all be bought for a price. This may be an opportunity for CIA operatives to buy some easy information.
The Somalians are fiercely anti-American. Any sign of US troops could incite an instant riot. If ever we put forces in Somalia they had better be a full infantry brigade or more, with plenty of combat aviation support.
Taken together, the instability of this country, its alignment with Moscow and Cuba, its religious ties to the Middle East and its historical hatred of the US (at least, among the warlords) -- combined with its strategic proximity to some of our most vital shipping lanes, the situation in Somalia is considered to be a high-priority concern. If one or more of these issues is determined to be a non-issue, Somalia's priority could be downgraded to a lower-level threat. Until that time, however, full attention on this country is advised.
Syria
While Syria has not been able to win any victories thus far in its war with Israel its army is still an impressive force in terms of sheer numbers, with over 4600 main battle tanks -- almost 6000 if you include Jordan and Lebanon as well (which are under the command of Syrian Generals). However, half of these are obsolete in the face of Israel's modern tanks, ATGMs and anti-tank guns. While Syria could mount a large enough offensive to break through Israel's border defenses in fairly short order, most of its forces would be decimated before it reached Haifa, leaving itself open to a devastating counterthrust. Hence, Syria is a bit shy to engage in full-scale war without the support of its Arab allies -- which is what brings Syrian diplomats to the peace table for every time the Israelis win another skirmish.
The key to Syria's actions is Iran. If Iran sits out much longer, Syria will be forced to stand down and the peace process can begin, perhaps with the assistance of Egypt and Saudi Arabia. If Iran does declare war on Israel, however, the entire region will go white-hot within a matter of days with all the big-name players wanting a piece of Israeli. The US will be sucked in, leaving few reserves to guard other theaters. Such a war will not be pretty.
The following countries and organizations, while known for opposing US interests, are considered less likely to initiate hostilities at this time and are therefore not considered to be imminent threats. Therefore, no special degree of caution or alert is necessary when encountering forces from these countries. However, depending on future intelligence data, any one of these countries could be upgraded to a High-Level threat at a moment's notice. Changes of this nature will be reflected on the DIA World Threat Map that accompanies this report.
Cuba
Cuba has been instrumental in triggering political upheavals this last decade, and from the point of view of the US is perhaps the single-most destabilizing influence in the world. In addition to helping tyrannical governments maintain power as well as Leftist revolutionary movements to usurp it, Cuba appears to be acting in tandem with the Russian Union as part of some "uberplan" for shared world domination. We must assume that Cuba is receiving intelligence data directly from Moscow, which would give Cuba a great advantage should it decide to undertake any overt acts of hostility or terrorism aimed at the US. This alone makes Cuba a tremendously dangerous threat in the long-term. The only question is, might Cuba also be a threat in the short-term?
So far, however, "Fidelito" has been careful not to oppose the US directly but rather to help Cuba's various "comrads in arms" such as Argentina, Somalia and the Leftist guerrillas in Honduras through the smuggling of arms (which we have not yet caught them doing) and providing political and military expertise (which is not illegal under the UN charter). Thus we have not been able to produce enough evidence to support economic or military sanctions by the UN.
On the other hand, there may be any number of scenarios that could drag us into a state of war with its "comrades," and once that happens we must consider Cuba as an active ally of the enemy and therefore a threat of the highest order. Given the country's proximity to the US, such a condition would require immediate pre-emptive strikes on Cuban airbases, followed by an impenatrable naval blockade around the island to make sure no weapons find their way into the hands of our enemy. For this reason it may be necessary to bolster our Southern Command (CINCSOUTH) with a large task force from the 2nd Fleet in the event that a major US-Cuba confrontation develops. If such a force is on hand to strike quickly, the conflict could be yesterday's news very quickly, which would preempt any attempt by Russia to step in and escalate the conflict to global proportions.
Honduras
After years of near-bankruptcy, a militant rebel movement has begun to pose a serious challenge to the pro-Western government's rule in what appears to be a replay of the Cuban revolution of the 1950s. And with good reason -- the Honduran contras are being deftly guided and supported by Fidelito Castro, the grandson of Fidel and present dictator of Cuba. The US has agreed to help the government of Honduras fight the rebel faction by seizing contraband weapons being smuggled to them by Cuba, but we are being careful not to oppose the new faction too strongly as this would touch off accusations of meddling, a sensitive issue in Latin American countries. A UN mandate, permitting our intrusion, would be ideal, but is being blocked, as expected, by Russia.
Right now the conflict is regarded as only "moderately serious," but we should watch what happens in Honduras carefully, as things may heat up in this region very soon. If the conflict continues to develop unabated, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs has indicated that the first response would be to set up a tight naval blockade of Honduran ports to ensure no arms or any other aid could be shipped to the contras from Cuba by sea. A special forces mission or covert op may also be necessary in order to stop the flow of supplies by land. Another option is to instigate a covert CIA operation to remove Castro's puppets and expose the country's corrupt election process in hopes of turning the public against the contras. Should matters escalate in this country, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs will likely expect to hear your viewpoint on this issue.
Malaysia
After losing its war with the US two years ago (see AAR for the Battle of Brunei) there's not much Malaysia can do but lick its wounds and try to beg its way back into the SEA economic circles. Its army is down to half strength, it's navy is shattered, and its air force is almost non-existent. It will be years, in fact, before they fully repair the damage done to their infrastructure by the B1 attacks conducted by the US shortly before the Brunei landing. But national pride is a powerful and volatile thing, and the winds of anti-Americanism blow strongly here. This may make Malaysia a likely spawning ground for staging terrorist attacks in the future. Fortunately, Malaysia is more distrustful of Indonesia than they are of the US, so we doubt Indonesia is one of the countries they would side with. But aligning with China or North Korea is a definite possibility, and given that they still control and observe a large area in the South China Sea, they could cause all sorts of untold complications for us.
The Tamil (Sri Lanka)
The Tamil Tigers operate what amounts to a highly elite terrorist training camp in a mountainous jungle region of Sri Lanka known as the Wanni, in the southeastern part of the island. They are a fierce and dedicated organization that makes the PLO look conservative by comparison. Some of their most infamous deeds involve suicide bombers (who are generally women, as they tend not to be searched as vigorously at airports) who have been known to strap explosives to themselves and wait for an opportunity to approach high level leaders in public areas. Upon completion of their training, some members become private, terrorist-for-hire mercenaries whose skills in disguise and infilration are world renowned. In fact, in all the killings we have traced to the Tamil, not one of their members has ever been captured -- alive, at any rate.
While their home is now in Sri Lanka, the Tamil Tigers are rumored to be operating all over the world, sometimes studying their target for months before striking. Their leadership is unknown to us, but we know they are currently located at their stronghold in the Wanni jungle. Be advised that if these people were ever to be linked to an act of terrorism on US soil, the President may be forced to call for an immediate punitive attack on this Tamil stronghold, or perhaps order an extraction operation aimed at bringing their leaders to justice.
Yugoslavia
After having been bombed into submission by the US during the Kosovo crisis in 1999, Yugoslavia spent most of the last decade rebuilding its decimated infrastructure. A few years ago, Russia began helping to accelerate the process with equipment, money and engineers in exchange for overfly rights for its air force. With few signs of any repeated aggression on the part of the Serbs, NATO's IFOR was all but disbanded, leaving only a token peacekeeping force in Kosovo. Yugoslavia now boasts fully rebuilt and modernized communications and power facilities, which has no doubt helped to restore faith in the government among the people. Yugoslavia's armed forces, especially those of Serbia, have been rebuilt as well, largely through the purchase of early-model Russian weapons that flooded the market in 2005.
While some of these forces have been deployed to the south, near Kosovo, the lion's share of them has been deployed to the western border near northern Bosnia and Croatia, where there seems to be a growing conflict brewing between the national and provincial governments over the jurisdiction of local industry, particuarly the recently lucrative steel industry. Reports of local coups, assassination attempts and ethnic cleansing have been trickling out of these western regions for some time, though none of these reports have been verified.
Alarmed at yet another buildup of Serbian forces in this region, the US is calling upon its western European allies (WEU) for a higher commitment to the IFOR ground force (which has all but abandoned Yugoslavia altogether while the WEU is instead requesting American carrier support to provide preemptive air strike capability. Admittedly, the WEU makes a strong case. If there is any lesson NATO has taken away from the past experience in the Balkans, it is that force must be met with force before the enemy has seized any objectives. If Serbia does make a move for Croatia or Bosnia, it will be far easier to destroy them in transit than when they are well dug-in and on the defensive.
FYI: Other countries and organizations
While the following countries by themselves do not pose a threat to US interests, they may be involved in a conflict that does. Further understanding of these countries therefore seems prudent.
Al Jihad
This is a growing fundamentalist Islamic movement in Egypt which has been highly outspoken and critical of Mubarek's moderate path, calling instead for a more militant stance in the matters of Israel and the Palestinian situation. This religious sect is the same group that was responsible for the assassintion of Sadat in 1981, and has strong ties with Iraq, Iran, Libya and Syria. Given the Jihad's dark past, "Mubarek the Moderate" has been careful not to suppress this group too violently (which is one of the actions of Sadat that led to his assassination) and instead is relying on free, democratic discussion to keep the people aligned with the current government and against the Al Jihad.
We believe the factor that may decide the Egyptian people's loyalty , however, will likely be economic, and not political or religious. We predict that as long as Egypt's economy remains steady, Mubarek will prevail.
Egypt
The UN Study's mention of Mubarek having "detractors" in his home country is an understatement. There is in fact a fierce opposition movement going on right now, one which has beeing gaining more and more influence within the country. Demonstrations are held regularly in both Cairo and Alexandria, often resulting in arrests and in some cases, deportment. While still in the minority, they are becoming more vocal and more influenttial with each passing month.
The opposition movement is led by the Al Jihad, a fantatic religious group known for its acts of terrorism -- the most notorious of which was the assassination of Anwar Sadat. Sadat's assassination, in fact, was for similar reasons: as President he was far too gentle in his dealing with Israel and too pacifistic in general, at least from the Al Jihad's point of view. (See report on Al Jihad, above).
India
While the US is not directly involved in Indian or Pakistani affairs per se, any major outbreak of hostilities between the two could go nuclear in minutes, which requires a 24/7 watchdog approach to keeping tabs on this country. Even if hostilities only led to conventional warfare, India could play tremendous havoc upon Western commercial interests as well as destabilize the entire region. Thus, a portion of our intelligence assets will be focused on this region at all times just to be safe.
India has another major thorn in its side besides Pakistan, however. It is also being harrassed by terrorist attacks, even assassination attempts from a group known as the Tamil Tigers, a begrudgingly tolerated enclave within the island country of Sri Lanka known for conducing acts of terrorism -- particularly those involving assassination. India is now working on a solution with Sri Lanka to rid the island of this menacing organization.
Japan
[Updated July 1, 2009]
Japan is in the unusual position of being a major world economic and political power with an aggressive military tradition, resisting the development of strong armed forces. A military proscription is included as Article 9 of the 1947 constitution stating, "The Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as a means of settling international disputes." That article, along with the rest of the "Peace Constitution," retains strong government and citizen support and is interpreted as permitting the Self-Defense Forces (SDF), but prohibiting those forces from possessing nuclear weapons or other offensive arms or being deployed outside of Japan.
While the US strongly supported Japan's "defense-only" posture in the 40's and 50's, today it is a cause of much frustration since it means the US must shoulder most of the burden of defending the Western Pacific in all areas outside of Japan's home waters. True to its consititutional edict, the SDF will not and indeed cannot project power much farther than its own shores. On the other hand, as a purely defensive force the SDF is first-rate, with heavy land, naval and air forces trained and ready to respond to any emergency. The SDF would no doubt prove to be a tremendously powerful opponent to any would-be invader.
Pakistan
Pakistan has been involved in what amounts to an undeclared cold war with India for over a decade, and continues to build up its armed forces. Unlike India, who must face the rugged terrain of the Sulaiman Mountain range in order to invade, Pakistan has a clear and open access to India's heartland through the Great Indian Desert.
From the US point of view, the main concern with Pakistan is that it seems more intent on using terror weapons such as ballistic missiles -- and seems to have little compunction about using nuclear weapons. This, of course, has the effect of prompting India to do the same. If the escalation continues, the UN may step in and impose a forced destruction of nuclear arms, which would have to be heavily enforced by the US.
Pakistan is also suspected of having ties with the Tamil, an extremist religious group in Sri Lanka known for acts of terrorism -- in particular the assassination of key political figures in India.
Saudi Arabia
The Saudis are divided in their allegiance between their Arab brethren on one side, and the lucrative wealth and military support of the US on the other. While Saudi Arabia is generally friendly to the US, we must be careful not to abuse that trust or to expect too much from them in terms of standing up to their other Arab nations.
Taiwan
The US and Taiwan are on very good relations, owing to strong commercial bonds in the area of textiles. This has allowed us to access Taiwan's considerable intelligence-gathering network which is particularly adept at learning information at the grass roots level. Such intelligence might include items such as shipping traffic in various ports, amount of radio trafic, reports on suspicious-looking freighters (possibly carrying contraband), public opinion in various countries, and so on. They are less able to gain high-level intel such as weapons production and mobilization of forces within the interior of countries not near Taiwan. Taiwan's most effective intel-gathering platform, in fact, is a fishing boat outfitted with all kinds of electronics including radio direction finders, ECM/ESM gear, and so forth. It might be worthwhile tapping into their expertise from time to time.
Vietnam
The relationship between the US and Vietnam is a peculiar one. At the moment, both are finding mutual benefit in a host of business partnerships, especially those involving banking and utilities. So many billions of dollars have been poured into Vietnam's infrastructure, in fact, that any threat to the country from China would also threaten US markets considerably. While the hardships of war, of course, are far more serious than the hardships of lost investments, American business -- and the congressmen whom they support -- don't appear to see it that way. The President has made it clear to the Joint Chiefs of Staff that Vietnam's defense is of utmost concern and that the US must be ready to come to her aid should China indeed begin to take aggressive actions. The tricky part is that the President has also ordered the CJCS to only take standoff military action such as high-altitude airstrikes and precision bombing, operations that usually result in no American lives lost. This is due to the awkwardness involved in being friendly with a country that, for the senior citizens at any rate, was once responsible for a great many Americans deaths during an earlier generation. As such, the President is under pressure to make sure no American lives are lost in this region ever again.
END REPORT.
